Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 10 2023 16:32:08

ACUS01 KWNS 101632
SWODY1
SPC AC 101630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado may occur today across
parts of southern/central California. Thunderstorms capable of
isolated severe gusts will also be possible across parts of
southeast Nevada, northwest Arizona, and southwest Utah.

....Central/southern California...
Cloud breaks, diurnal heating, and steepening mid-level lapse rates
(particularly over central California) should allow for some uptick
in more cellular/isolated convection into this afternoon within the
post-frontal environment. A couple of locally damaging thunderstorm
wind gusts and/or a brief tornado will remain possible into this
afternoon over the interior valley and/or near the coast. However, a
tendency for veering low-level winds and weakening convergence
should lead to a diminished potential over time.

....Southern Great Basin...
Coincident with the approach of the upstream shortwave trough and
upper jet exit region, there will be a modest increase in low-level
moisture immediately ahead of the cold front this afternoon. Surface
heating/steepening of low-level lapse rates could support some
convectively enhanced wind gusts late this afternoon/early evening
via the downward transfer of 50+ kt flow in association with the
forced band of convection near the advancing front.

...Guyer/Thornton.. 01/10/2023

$$

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