Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 10 2023 06:31:33

ACUS02 KWNS 100631
SWODY2
SPC AC 100630

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MID-SOUTH...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday night
through early Thursday morning from parts of east Texas/Oklahoma
into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. Occasional damaging
winds and a brief tornado or two should be the main threats, but
some hail also appears possible.

....East Texas/Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Mid-South...
An upper trough/low will move eastward across the southern and
central Plains on Wednesday, eventually reaching the lower/mid MS
Valley and Mid-South late Wednesday night. A related surface low
should develop from eastern CO across KS/OK through the day, and
into southern MO and the lower OH Valley by the end of the period.
Prior frontal passages have shunted rich low-level moisture into the
Gulf of Mexico. But, gradually strengthening low-level warm
advection preceding the upper trough/low should aid in the northward
return of upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints from parts of east
TX/OK into the lower MS Valley and Mid-South by Wednesday evening.

Steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from the higher terrain of the
Southwest and northern Mexico will overspread the warm sector and
provide a substantial cap. This cap is expected to hinder convective
initiation through at least early Wednesday evening, if not later.
Eventually, ascent attendant to the upper trough/low will erode the
cap, and isolated convective development should occur over parts of
east TX/OK along/near a cold front. There are still some differences
in guidance regarding the quality of low-level moisture return and
strength of the cap, which will impact overall thunderstorm
coverage. Even with these potential limitations, there should be
enough boundary-layer instability to support a threat for
surface-based thunderstorms.

Strong deep-layer shear will be present owing to enhanced
mid/upper-level winds attendant to the upper trough, with 40-60+ kt
of effective bulk shear available to support updraft organization. A
threat for some isolated hail may exist with any initial development
given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. A transition to a
damaging wind threat should persist through Wednesday night into
early Thursday morning, as convection potentially grows upscale and
spreads eastward as a southwesterly low-level jet strengthens. This
jet will aid in some enlargement to the low-level hodograph, but
gradually veering low-level flow through the night should limit 0-1
km SRH to some extent. A brief tornado or two appears possible. But,
this threat is largely conditional on a supercell being sustained,
which is questionable. At this point, continued concerns about
low-level moisture, related weak instability, cap strength, and
thunderstorm coverage preclude introduction of higher severe
probabilities.

...Gleason.. 01/10/2023

$$

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