Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 09 2023 09:47:28

ACUS48 KWNS 090947
SWOD48
SPC AC 090945

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CST Mon Jan 09 2023

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

....DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough/low with attendant 70-80+ kt mid-level jet
should translate eastward on Day 4/Thursday from the lower/mid MS
Valley over much of the eastern CONUS while gradually amplifying. A
related surface low should develop east-northeastward across the OH
Valley/Great Lakes through the day, with an attendant cold front
sweeping southeastward across the central Gulf Coast states. A
corridor of modest low-level moisture should be in place ahead of
this front, with generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints
forecast. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along/ahead of the
cold front Thursday morning across MS into the Mid-South vicinity,
with a marginal severe threat. Modest diurnal heating should
encourage weak instability to develop across much of AL and parts of
GA through Thursday afternoon. This weak instability should be
sufficient to support surface-based convection as it spreads
east-southeastward through the day. Deep-layer shear will be rather
strong owing to the strong mid/upper-level winds, and should support
organized convection.

Current expectations are for at least isolated severe thunderstorms
to develop eastward along/near the cold front from AL into GA and
vicinity through Thursday afternoon and early evening. Given a large
component of front-parallel flow aloft and frontal forcing, a linear
storm mode will probably be dominant. Accordingly, damaging winds
should be the main severe threat. Low-level flow is forecast to
gradually veer to a more west-southwesterly component through the
day, which may limit the tornado threat to occasional embedded
circulations within the line. Regardless of these factors, there is
a enough of a signal in guidance for robust convection across AL
into parts of GA to include a 15% severe area for Thursday. Once the
cold front clears the East Coast early on Day 5/Friday, the severe
threat across the CONUS will likely remain minimal through the rest
of the extended forecast period.

...Gleason.. 01/09/2023

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