Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 09 2023 05:02:25

ACUS01 KWNS 090502
SWODY1
SPC AC 090500

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Sun Jan 08 2023

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
IMMEDIATE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTLINE...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur along/near parts
of the immediate central California Coastline, mainly early Tuesday
morning.

....Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will overspread the MS Valley as a series of
mid-level impulses traverses CA today. The first upper impulse will
overspread CA during the morning into afternoon hours, accompanied
by scant buoyancy and a risk for general thunderstorms. Toward the
end of the period though, a second, more potent mid-level impulse
will approach the CA coastline with relatively more buoyancy and
enough lift/shear to promote potentially strong thunderstorm
development, and an instance of severe weather cannot be ruled out.

....Central California Coastline early Tuesday Morning...
In the 09-12Z Tuesday period, the second aforementioned mid-level
trough will approach the coastline accompanied by cooler 850-500 mb
temperatures, supporting 7 C/ km lapse rates from near the surface
to about 500 mb (per latest point forecast soundings). These lapse
rates will overspread surface temperatures/dewpoints in the low to
mid 50s F, contributing to a few hundred J/kg of low-level CAPE
along the central CA coastline. Strong low-level and deep-layer
shear will be in place to support a threat of a damaging gust or
perhaps a brief tornado. However, guidance consensus has been
trending later in the arrival of the second wave and associated
convective development. As such, Category 1 - Marginal severe
probabilities have been confined to the immediate coastline, where
an instance of severe could occur before 12Z Tuesday. If trends
continue to delay the arrival of convection any later, severe
probabilities may need to be removed in future Day 1 Outlooks.

...Squitieri/Dean.. 01/09/2023

$$

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