Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 08 2023 19:57:23

ACUS01 KWNS 081957
SWODY1
SPC AC 081955

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CST Sun Jan 08 2023

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....Discussion...
Removed low thunderstorm probabilities across the AL/MS/LA vicinity
for this outlook update.  Otherwise, not appreciable change was made
to the previous convective outlook.

...Smith.. 01/08/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Jan 08 2023/

....Discussion...
A progressive low-amplitude flow regime will continue to
characterize the upper-level pattern over the CONUS through tonight,
highlighted by several minoring impulses east of the Rockies while a
somewhat more substantial upper trough nears the west Coast late
tonight.

Initially, thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of the
Deep South and middle Gulf Coast near the
east/southeastward-advancing cold front. However, the coverage of
lightning-producing convection will tend to diminish today and
become increasingly relegated to the Gulf of Mexico. One exception
is that thunderstorms are expected to increase late tonight near the
coastal Carolinas and particularly over the open Atlantic waters.
The primary moisture-rich warm sector should remain offshore, but
increasing low-level moisture/instability and strong deep-layer
shear could allow for a few strong/rotating storms near coastal
North Carolina late tonight.

In the West, as a shortwave trough continues to spread northeastward
over the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms will remain
possible today across the Sierra Nevada and/or coastal northern
California/western Oregon, although thunderstorm potential and
coverage will diminish by late afternoon/evening. An additional
round of thunderstorm potential will materialize late tonight in
association with the warm conveyor ahead of the next West
Coast-approaching upper trough. However, much of the nocturnal
thunderstorm potential should remain focused offshore.

$$

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