Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 08 2023 16:32:20

ACUS01 KWNS 081632
SWODY1
SPC AC 081630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Sun Jan 08 2023

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight.

....Discussion...
A progressive low-amplitude flow regime will continue to
characterize the upper-level pattern over the CONUS through tonight,
highlighted by several minoring impulses east of the Rockies while a
somewhat more substantial upper trough nears the west Coast late
tonight.

Initially, thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of the
Deep South and middle Gulf Coast near the
east/southeastward-advancing cold front. However, the coverage of
lightning-producing convection will tend to diminish today and
become increasingly relegated to the Gulf of Mexico. One exception
is that thunderstorms are expected to increase late tonight near the
coastal Carolinas and particularly over the open Atlantic waters.
The primary moisture-rich warm sector should remain offshore, but
increasing low-level moisture/instability and strong deep-layer
shear could allow for a few strong/rotating storms near coastal
North Carolina late tonight.

In the West, as a shortwave trough continues to spread northeastward
over the Pacific Northwest, isolated thunderstorms will remain
possible today across the Sierra Nevada and/or coastal northern
California/western Oregon, although thunderstorm potential and
coverage will diminish by late afternoon/evening. An additional
round of thunderstorm potential will materialize late tonight in
association with the warm conveyor ahead of the next West
Coast-approaching upper trough. However, much of the nocturnal
thunderstorm potential should remain focused offshore.

...Guyer/Thornton.. 01/08/2023

$$

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