Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 08 2023 09:38:20

ACUS48 KWNS 080938
SWOD48
SPC AC 080936

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 AM CST Sun Jan 08 2023

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance remains in reasonable agreement that an upper
trough will advance quickly eastward from the Southwest across the
southern Plains, and eventually over the lower MS Valley and
Mid-South, from Day 4/Wednesday into early Day 5/Thursday. This
upper trough should evolve into a closed upper low as it continues
moving across the eastern CONUS through Day 6/Friday. A surface low
should develop eastward in tandem with the upper trough, with a
partially modified Gulf airmass attempting to return northward from
parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Most
guidance indicates that surface dewpoints will remain fairly limited
over these regions, generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. This
should hinder robust destabilization across the warm sector from
Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of a cold front.

Still, deep-layer shear will be strong, and an isolated/marginal
threat for severe thunderstorms may exist beginning late Wednesday
night across parts of the lower MS Valley and Mid-South as a strong
cap gradually erodes. This threat should continue into portions of
the central Gulf Coast states on Thursday along/ahead of a cold
front. At this point, weak forecast instability and a large
component of front-parallel shear may tend to keep the risk for
organized severe thunderstorms fairly isolated. Therefore, while at
least low probabilities for severe thunderstorms will likely be
needed in later outlooks for both Wednesday and Thursday, the
marginal thermodynamic environment suggests that introducing 15%
delineations would be premature.

...Gleason.. 01/08/2023

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