Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 08 2023 06:02:20

ACUS02 KWNS 080602
SWODY2
SPC AC 080600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Sun Jan 08 2023

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AND VICINITY...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur along/near parts
of the central California Coast, mainly Monday night into early
Tuesday morning.

....California...
A lead shortwave trough should develop quickly northward along/near
the Pacific Northwest Coast on Monday. A large-scale upper trough is
forecast to further amplify through the period over the eastern
Pacific as it approaches the West Coast. Within this larger cyclone,
another embedded shortwave trough should approach the central CA
Coast region late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. Rather
strong low/mid-level flow will likely accompany this feature and
overspread parts of CA through the latter half of the Day 2 period.

There is still some uncertainty regarding the quality and inland
extent of sufficient low-level moisture to support surface-based
thunderstorms. Still, most guidance indicates that low 50s surface
dewpoints should be present along/near parts of the central CA Coast
by Monday night in a persistent southwesterly low-level flow regime,
with some potential for mid 50s dewpoints. Mid-level temperatures
are forecast to cool as the shortwave trough approaches, and some
steepening of lapse rates aloft should likewise aid in the
development of weak instability generally after 10/06Z. Forecast
soundings from the latest NAM suggest MLCAPE may reach 250-500 J/kg
along/near the coast. A veering and strengthening wind profile in
the boundary layer should support some updraft organization.
Low-topped convection that forms offshore may spread inland very
late in the period (around 08-12Z) and pose a threat for isolated
damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado given the strength of the
low-level flow forecast.

...Gleason.. 01/08/2023

$$

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