Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 08 2023 05:35:51

ACUS01 KWNS 080535
SWODY1
SPC AC 080534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Sat Jan 07 2023

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low today.

....Parts of the LA/upper TX Gulf Coast...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period near
or just offshore of the LA/upper TX Gulf Coast, in conjunction with
a southward-moving cold front. Weak-to-moderate buoyancy and modest
deep-layer flow/shear could support a few organized storms near the
coast this morning, though any severe wind/hail threat over land
appears limited at this time. The thunderstorm threat should
generally diminish over the region by early/mid afternoon as
convection generally weakens or shifts offshore.

....Northern CA...
Widespread precipitation with embedded thunderstorms is expected
this morning across parts of northern CA, as a strong
mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves onshore near the start of the
forecast period. Instability will likely remain quite limited, but
the strongest storms may be capable of small hail and gusty winds,
before convection weakens and moves away from the region by
afternoon.

....NC Outer Banks...
As a mid/upper-level trough moves eastward across parts of the
Southeast and Mid Atlantic, a surface low is forecast to develop off
of the SC/NC coasts late tonight. The warm sector of the developing
cyclone is currently expected to remain just offshore, but some
convection could spread near or over the Outer Banks overnight.

...Dean/Squitieri.. 01/08/2023

$$

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