Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0039
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 08 2023 03:44:49

ACUS11 KWNS 080344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080344=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-080545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 PM CST Sat Jan 07 2023

Areas affected...South-central/Southeast Texas into extreme
west-central Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 080344Z - 080545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will sag southeast into the late evening
hours. Marginally severe hail and gusty winds are the greatest
risks.

DISCUSSION...Surface front is sagging southeast across the coastal
Plain of TX and northwest LA. Scattered convection has developed
near the frontal zone and has gradually expanded in areal coverage
from southeast of SAT-Conroe-Natchitoches. Buoyancy is not
particularly strong across this region but more than adequate for
robust updrafts. Two short-wave troughs appear to be influencing the
surface boundary/convection. The more northerly short wave over
western MO is suppressing the height field into northern AR. In
response, 850mb flow is somewhat stronger immediately downstream
with 25-35kt flow extending across northern MS into middle TN.
Lower-latitude short wave is approaching the Trans Pecos in west TX
and heights should flatten across the coastal Plain of TX later
tonight. Even so, low-level flow should remain weak along the
frontal corridor where instability is greatest. Despite the weak
low-level flow/warm advection, a few robust updrafts have evolved
within the elongated corridor of convection. Several MRMS MESH
signatures suggest hail could approach 1 inch with the strongest
updrafts. Gusty winds may also be noted with these stronger cores.
While a considerable number of thunderstorms will persist along the
frontal zone into the late evening, current thinking is the
magnitude of hail/wind should remain a bit too low to warrant more
than an isolated severe storm or two.

...Darrow/Grams.. 01/08/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9CNdKRlbEhs10wrOj0iOpJTyJ8NJ2a_RmWbIHYrKZ1Lid4VNCrICi2I_ycVfxoxKAV3MMskdG=
88fn9Hrwa54RrVXCoc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   29149797 30089647 31569373 30969341 28899703 29149797=20


=3D =3D =3D
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