Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Jan 08 2023 00:36:17 ACUS01 KWNS 080036 SWODY1 SPC AC 080034 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CST Sat Jan 07 2023 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX... ....SUMMARY... Isolated hail and locally gusty thunderstorm winds are possible tonight across parts of south-central and southeast Texas. ....South-central/southeast TX... Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in coverage and intensity through the evening, as a cold front sags southward across south-central into southeast TX tonight. Seasonably rich low-level moisture and relatively steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted in the 00Z DRT sounding) are supporting moderate buoyancy, with objective mesoanalyses and the 00Z CRP sounding depicting MLCAPE of greater than 1000 J/kg near and south of the front, with MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg analyzed on the immediate cool side of the boundary. Deep-layer shear is rather weak early this evening, but will increase somewhat with time as midlevel flow strengthens in response to a mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the region from northern Mexico. A few modestly organized storms will be possible later this evening into the overnight hours, with a threat of isolated severe hail and perhaps locally strong gusts. ....Central/northern CA... Low-topped convection is expected to increase later tonight across parts of central/northern CA, as a strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaches the region from the eastern Pacific. Cooling temperatures aloft and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support an increase in thunderstorm potential overnight, with the strongest storms potentially capable of producing small hail and gusty winds, especially near the central/northern CA coast. ...Dean.. 01/08/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .