Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 08 2023 00:24:49

AWUS01 KWNH 080024
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-080623-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0027
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
723 PM EST Sat Jan 07 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeast TX & LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080023Z - 080623Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are broadening in scale, with
a cluster downwind of Houston showing some backbuilding/training
character.  Hourly rain totals to 2.5" with local amounts of 5"
are expected.  Heavy rain impacts are expected to be isolated to
widely scattered.

Discussion...Upper level circulations progressing by St. Joseph,
MO and El Paso, TX are starting to ramp up divergence aloft, which
is increasing cell coverage across southeast TX and western LA.=20
Precipitable water values are beginning to eclipse 1.25" within an
atmosphere with 1000-500 hPa thickness in the low 560 dm range,
implying decent to significant saturation.  Effective bulk shear
is 25-30 kts per SPC mesoanalyses and a pool of 1000-1500+ J/kg
lies across southeast TX and portions of LA.  These ingredients,
along with fairly deep unidirectional flow out of the
west-southwest, has helped organize a small thunderstorm complex
downwind or east-northeast of Houston which has shown some
backbuilding/training as of late.

With cell coverage ramping up, additional instances of such
activity could occur over the next several hours, which is shown
by expanding 18z HREF probabilities of 0.5+ an hour.  The
combination of a cold front catching up to this activity and a
cold pool caused by the expanding convective footprint should lead
to some forward propagation in three or so hours.  Until then,
periods of cell training and cell mergers between less and more
organized thunderstorm activity could continue to lead to hourly
rain totals to 2.5" and local amounts to 5", which could lead to
isolated to widely scattered instance of flash flooding,
particularly over urban areas.

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6LQSYGFQoFkS3CxcSLGeiHlrwavOWNIGobBmXGkX031xAXtOYPwVhXe2IFEoVWYd8alW=
VP8rwJD7lS9hULUClpDJdBA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...JAN...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32539210 32009146 30739278 29409555 29349726=20
            31739360=20

=3D =3D =3D
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