Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jan 07 2023 16:32:42

ACUS01 KWNS 071632
SWODY1
SPC AC 071630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Sat Jan 07 2023

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and/or thunderstorm wind gusts are
possible this afternoon and evening across southeast Texas including
the middle/upper Texas coast.

....Southeast Texas including Middle/Upper Texas Coast...
Although 12z observed soundings from Brownsville/Corpus Christi and
more recent GPS-derived precipitable water (PW) data reflect PW
values less than 1 inch, steady air mass modification and a
low-level influx of moisture will continue to occur over the western
Gulf of Mexico and across the Texas coastal plain through evening.
At the same time, a cold front will continue to advance
southeastward across the ArkLaTex toward the ArkLaMiss and across
much of east and central/south Texas through tonight.

Isolated storms are expected to develop by late afternoon, with
initial development expected particularly across far east/southeast
Texas near the cold front. This is where middle 60s F surface
dewpoints will tend to coincide with somewhat weaker capping aloft.
Although a few weak/transient supercells could occur, multicells
should be most common as storms develop and increase through early
evening. Some stronger thunderstorm wind gusts will be possible
near/just ahead of the front, with severe hail otherwise possible
across the region.

...Guyer/Thornton.. 01/07/2023

$$

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