Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jan 07 2023 09:02:11

ACUS48 KWNS 070902
SWOD48
SPC AC 070900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CST Sat Jan 07 2023

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

....DISCUSSION...
An upper trough should progress quickly eastward across the
Southwest and southern Plains/Rockies from Day 4/Tuesday into Day
5/Wednesday, eventually evolving into a closed upper low by
Wednesday night. Low-level moisture will attempt to return northward
over parts of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and
Southeast ahead of this feature. However, prior frontal passages and
surface ridging over the central Gulf Coast region will likely slow
the inland advance of substantial low-level moisture, and act to
hinder destabilization.

Still, strong forcing for ascent should support convective
development Wednesday night into Day 6/Thursday from portions of
central/east TX/OK into the lower MS Valley and Mid-South as the
upper trough/low continues eastward. With ample deep-layer shear
forecast, some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe. The
main limiting factor for a more substantial threat for organized
severe thunderstorms is weak forecast instability, which is
correlated to the incomplete low-level moisture return. Regardless,
trends in deterministic and ensemble guidance will be monitored for
possible future inclusion of a 15% delineation across parts of these
regions from late Wednesday through Day 7/Friday. But, at this point
the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to introduce
any areas.

...Gleason.. 01/07/2023

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