Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jan 07 2023 08:01:40

ACUS03 KWNS 070801
SWODY3
SPC AC 070800

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Sat Jan 07 2023

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Monday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
Another in a series of pronounced upper troughs is expected to move
eastward over the eastern Pacific and impact the western CONUS
Monday into Monday night. An enhanced mid-level jet associated with
an embedded shortwave trough should overspread much of CA into NV
through the period. A focused 40-50+ kt south-southwesterly
low-level jet should also be present across parts of central CA and
vicinity. Strong forcing for ascent aloft preceding the upper
trough, combined with cooling mid-level temperatures, should
encourage isolated lighting flashes with low-topped convection
spreading inland mainly Monday evening through early Tuesday
morning.

The 00Z NAM is most bullish with potential for sufficient
instability to support surface-based thunderstorms along parts of
the CA Coast Monday night, with the latest GFS/ECMWF and their
respective ensembles depicting less instability. Both low-level and
deep-layer shear will be rather strong, and would conditionally
support organized convection if enough instability can be realized.
At this point, it appears that the potential for severe
thunderstorms will be hampered by the nocturnal timing of convection
and poor low-level lapse rates limiting boundary-layer instability.
But, model trends will continue to be closely monitored.

...Gleason.. 01/07/2023

$$

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