Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jan 06 2023 12:47:03

ACUS01 KWNS 061247
SWODY1
SPC AC 061245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 AM CST Fri Jan 06 2023

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm areas are not forecast today.

....Synopsis/Discussion...
A progressive mid/upper-level pattern will persist across the CONUS
through the period, with height rises over much of the East as
troughing there deamplifies.  An upstream shortwave trough --
currently over the Great Basin and embedded within a slower moving
larger-scale ridge -- will escape eastward across the central
Rockies and central Great Plains, but in weakened form.  In the wake
of frontal passage and continental/polar airmass intrusion from the
eastern system, insufficient moisture will exist ahead of the
Rockies/Plains feature to support thunderstorms in the central
CONUS.

Farther west, ridging aloft will build again and shift eastward from
the Great Basin across the Rockies, as a series of troughs of
varying lengths crosses the northeastern Pacific.  A synoptic-scale
cyclone -- now centered about 500 nm west of the OR coastline,
should eject northeastward toward waters off of BC and weaken.  Its
associated frontal/precip band should affect portions of the coastal
Pacific Northwest and northwestern CA from late this afternoon
through this evening.  While very isolated lightning cannot be ruled
out in this band, potential appears too sparse and low for a 10%
areal thunder delineation over land.

...Edwards.. 01/06/2023

$$

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