Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jan 06 2023 09:02:03

ACUS48 KWNS 060902
SWOD48
SPC AC 060900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CST Fri Jan 06 2023

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Another upper trough should move over the western states from Day
4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. Although deep-layer shear will be
strong with this system, meager instability should generally limit
the threat for organized severe convection along the CA Coast in
this time frame. Medium-range guidance is in reasonable agreement
that this upper trough will quickly progress eastward over the
southern/central Plains around the middle of next week, while
gradually evolving into a closed upper low. There is still
substantial uncertainty regarding the quality of low-level moisture
return across the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and
Southeast ahead of this system. While some severe threat may exist
over these areas late next week, it will be highly dependent on
sufficient moisture and related instability, both of which appear
questionable at this extended time frame.

...Gleason.. 01/06/2023

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