Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jan 06 2023 08:16:22 FOUS30 KWBC 060816 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 315 AM EST Fri Jan 06 2023 Day 1 Valid 01Z Fri Jan 06 2023 - 12Z Fri Jan 06 2023 ....THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR A PORTION OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA... ....Southwest Oregon into Northern California... The next round of rain into northern California and southwest Oregon is expected to begin Friday afternoon after a break in the activity Thursday night. It's a similar setup from Thursday, as a second strong low will approach southwest BC, and its trailing cold front will drape south into the coast Friday afternoon. Strengthening exit region forcing ahead of the upper level trough will allow for an uptick in low-mid moisture transport, most notably along/near the coast in northwest CA where the AR axis leads to of +1.5 to +2 standard deviations above normal along with an uptick of integrated water vapor transport (IVT) values to 400-600 kg/m/s. Per the high-res guidance, hourly rainfall rates are expected to peak near 0.50" within the Slight Risk area Friday afternoon and overnight, with the majority of high-res CAMs indicating a sliver of hourly rain rates of 0.75-1.0" within the Moderate Risk area after 00Z. Supporting the more enhanced (i.e. Moderate) Risk area over and near the Cape Mendocino area south of Eureka and into the Coastal Ranges and western Klamath Mountains will be the recent heavy rainfall and saturated soils, with between 3-7+ inches of rain over the past 48 hours. Most of the high-res CAMs show areas of 1-3+ inches of additional rainfall in the 24 hour period ending 12Z Saturday, with an area of 4-5+ inches focused within the Moderate Risk area (where the latest HREF indicates 50+ percent probabilities of 24 hour rainfall exceeding 5").=20=20 Hurley Day 2 The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 3 The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z. Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4PE17cWx8z6PFM0iuk2Ey89zuXNkQunRIsC8M2qbHUra= ADs7k80_qlsR4XtJyzb_18_xt-ENLpQOODX5rG1q3BCEG10$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4PE17cWx8z6PFM0iuk2Ey89zuXNkQunRIsC8M2qbHUra= ADs7k80_qlsR4XtJyzb_18_xt-ENLpQOODX5rG1qXpdEOr8$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4PE17cWx8z6PFM0iuk2Ey89zuXNkQunRIsC8M2qbHUra= ADs7k80_qlsR4XtJyzb_18_xt-ENLpQOODX5rG1q4oXrRVg$=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .