Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 05 2023 16:27:00

ACUS01 KWNS 051626
SWODY1
SPC AC 051625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Thu Jan 05 2023

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

....Synopsis...
A midlevel cyclone, evident in water vapor imagery will continue
eastward across the Great Lakes vicinity through the period, while
related large-scale troughing persists over the eastern CONUS. An
embedded midlevel speed maximum will lift northeastward from the
Southeast and eventually off the Mid-Atlantic coast, allowing the
tail-end of a cold front to continue southward across the
central/southern FL Peninsula. Moist/unstable boundary-layer
conditions will continue supporting isolated thunderstorms
along/immediately ahead of the southward-moving front today. While
30-40 kt of effective shear obliquely-oriented to the front could
favor a loosely organized multicell cluster or two over central FL
early this afternoon, limited large-scale ascent and poor midlevel
lapse rates should temper the severe risk.

Farther west, water vapor imagery and regional VWP data depict a
pronounced, midlevel shortwave trough accompanied by strong
west-southwesterly flow aloft tracking eastward over the CA coast.
As associated strong midlevel height-falls (90m per 12hr) continue
overspreading CA and parts of the Great Basin, isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms should spread eastward across the region
into the overnight hours. Cold midlevel temperatures atop lower 50s
boundary-layer dewpoints could yield pockets of weak surface-based
instability (especially over the western portions of CA this
afternoon). These conditions, coupled with 25-35 kt of effective
shear, could support a few embedded cells capable of small hail and
locally strong gusts. However, the weak instability/poor low-level
lapse rates should generally limit storm intensity -- precluding
severe probabilities.

...Weinman/Mosier.. 01/05/2023

$$

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