Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 05 2023 15:24:37

AWUS01 KWNH 051524
FFGMPD
CAZ000-052300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0021
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1024 AM EST Thu Jan 05 2023

Areas affected...Southern California...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall

Valid 051530Z - 052300Z

SUMMARY...Main moisture plume continues to slide southeast with
continued moderate to occasional heavy rainfall across SoCal.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite depicts main height-falls and energy
is lifting north and east across Central CA, flattening mid to
upper level flow across Southern CA reducing best forcing and
allowing for south and eastward progression.  CIRA LPW depicts the
splitting of the core of the moisture plume across the California
Bight though values remain at or just below 1".   A weak surface
inflection has enhanced local low level moisture convergence
along/near the Los Angles/Long Beach region recently resulting
increased rainfall totals up to 1-1.25" locally even in lower
elevations.  This will continue to slide east but intersect with
the Santa Ana Ridge and given the stronger south-southwesterly
flow, it will become less favorable for orographic ascent as well
into the Peninsular range.  Yet a few more hours of favorable flow
across the San Bernadino Range and points closer to the coast may
still still occasional rates up to .3-.5"/hr and additional 1-1.5"
totals through 21z, with only the highest peaks=20

As the upper level flow back, forward progression will allow for
the plume to translate eastward into the Peninsular Range.  Cold
air aloft may allow for some widely scattered narrow core
convective elements from the Channel Islands into Orange and San
Diego counties after 21-00z, but the bulk of heavy rainfall should
be tapering off with the lose of the greatest moisture plume and
vapor transport values (300-400 kg/m/s), with rates likely
decreasing below .25"/hr.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7v-N4NCPi7u1d0zoWWZDQ-L8Qopu7hS8ye-e2KxvNmj6niG0tGcM2AC7NvFIKrfP5VEE=
5rDlJCwLWaRuQQsPuCLGiLU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34581837 34561774 34441736 34101690 33621642=20
            32941622 32531628 32471690 32661739 33371771=20
            33691840 34321870=20

=3D =3D =3D
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