Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jan 05 2023 11:00:34

AWUS01 KWNH 051100
FFGMPD
CAZ000-051655-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0020
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 AM EST Thu Jan 05 2023

Areas affected...Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051058Z - 051655Z

Summary...Localized flooding/flash flooding will remain possible
across portions of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys through
mid-morning. Rainfall rates locally in excess of 0.5 in/hr are
expected.

Discussion...1030Z water vapor imagery showed the large closed low
over the eastern Pacific has begun to move inland with the main
band of colder brightness temperatures at its leading edge
extending from southern California into Nevada. Steep mid-level
lapse rates of 7-8 C/km are estimated via RAP analysis data over
the Sacramento Valley which has picked up 1-3 inches of rain over
the past 24 hours. While precipitable water values have lowered
compared to during the day on Wednesday, the cold mid-level
temperatures associated with the large upper level trough just off
of the West Coast are allowing for MLCAPE values of 100 to 500
J/kg over portions of the Sacramento Valley to the central coast
of California via 10Z data from the SPC mesoanalysis.

As the upper trough edges eastward over the next few hours, MUCAPE
values up to 500 J/kg are forecast to fill into most areas of the
Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys. Kinematic profiles will
support the potential for brief SW to NE training of narrow axes
of heavy rain with rainfall rates peaking near 0.5 in/hr within
the Valley through mid-morning. While portions of the region are
already experiencing flooding from prior rainfall, these
additional areas of heavy rain are expected to continue a threat
for flooding and possible flash flooding/debris flows in burn scar
regions.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8EKDuM2WSi7GrgFt23Z71-YLIcl9hqI3lm39hmmu_-YzGcqIg5mOYevqFtqzMf5v42iV=
mhZr47GU4pnvfvnk0gPWnkM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40122163 39792107 39272055 38432021 37651959=20
            36721887 36071854 35391844 35441924 36281982=20
            37132066 37872128 38622184 39062206 39602202=20
            40042196=20

=3D =3D =3D
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