Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0037
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jan 04 2023 18:10:50

ACUS11 KWNS 041810
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041810=20
NCZ000-041945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0037
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CST Wed Jan 04 2023

Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 041810Z - 041945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm risk may increase this afternoon
across eastern North Carolina. Locally damaging gusts and a tornado
or two are possible. Trends will be monitored for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...Regional VWPs show strong mid-level flow overspreading
eastern North Carolina this afternoon where a 40-50 kt low-level jet
is in place. Ongoing thunderstorms through central North Carolina
should continue tracking east-northeastward with mid-upper 60s
dewpoints ahead of this activity across the warm sector.
Additionally, diurnal heating is resulting in boundary layer
destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE), and the VWP from KRAX shows
strong low-level shear (near 40 kts 0-1 km bulk shear). These
conditions may result in continued organized thunderstorm activity
into parts of eastern North Carolina this afternoon. Primary hazards
will be damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. However, generally
weak forcing over the warm sector casts uncertainty on the severe
storm risk with eastward extent. Therefore, convective trends will
continue to be monitored for a possible watch this afternoon.

Additional thunderstorm activity is spreading northward over coastal
North Carolina, and some of these storms could become strong to
severe, as well.

...Supinie/Weinman/Hart.. 01/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9DiPVBV39wVr3CtIWaUxB1IVSRfDQHNsa9X_vkRNOv96PzL3IkiHdiMyC-SdKXAEIDzLuTsTt=
Nr-QGnx6OQOXft99Ik$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON   35827854 36097827 36487750 36527686 36247624 36057610
            35957609 35407611 34967621 34557646 34397735 34787805
            35197855 35547862 35827854=20


=3D =3D =3D
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