Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0034
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jan 04 2023 15:21:49

ACUS11 KWNS 041521
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041521=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-041715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0034
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0921 AM CST Wed Jan 04 2023

Areas affected...central South Carolina vicinity

Concerning...Tornado Watch 13...

Valid 041521Z - 041715Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 13 continues.

SUMMARY...Zone of relatively enhanced severe potential -- including
risk for a brief tornado or two -- is evident across central South
Carolina, within Tornado Watch 13.  New WW may be needed farther
east-northeastward, to the Coastal Carolinas.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop continues to depict a generally
nondescript squall line crossing the Carolinas/Georgia/the Florida
Panhandle at this time.  Within the broader line, a more complex
segment -- which includes some bowing/LEWP-type structures -- is
moving across central South Carolina.  Storm-relative velocity data
from the KCAE (Columbia SC) WSR-88D has revealed a couple of
small/weakly rotating updrafts embedded in the band, suggestive of
enhanced potential for a brief tornado or two relative to areas
farther south along the line.  Locally damaging wind gust potential
is also elevated in a relative sense, along this portion of the
line.

Given the roughly 35 to 40 kt east-northeasterly advance of this
convection, the storms will approach the northeastern corner of WW
13 over the next hour and a half or so.  At this time, indications
are that a new WW -- extending into northeastern South Carolina and
adjacent southern North Carolina -- may be needed.  With a noted
increase in coastal destabilization from the Outer Banks vicinity
southward -- coincident with diurnal heating in the less cloudy
environment east of the main convective cloud shield -- potential
exists that storms may maintain intensity into coastal portions of
the Carolinas.  The late-morning 1630Z Day 1 outlook will also note
this potential, with a northward expansion of SLGT risk.

...Goss.. 01/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-kyHyP9cucv4O_vYfCsLh7Dl6rO92hEU_43Xhi2d3Ul__eWiQR_Gai5eM67KWTya4AvJIIVYj=
Iqxw7xIw109PJZw03s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON   33018197 34078170 34398096 35097735 34027771 33227935
            33018197=20


=3D =3D =3D
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