Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jan 04 2023 08:40:42 AWUS01 KWNH 040840 FFGMPD NCZ000-SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-041439- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0016 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 339 AM EST Wed Jan 04 2023 Areas affected...eastern/southern Alabama, southeastern Mississippi, southeastern Louisiana, western through northern Georgia, upstate South Carolina Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 040839Z - 041439Z Summary...The ongoing flash flood threat continues to translate eastward across the Deep South as an elongated convective complex shifts eastward. Local rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches/hr at times will contribute to flash flooding - perhaps becoming locally significant especially in Alabama. Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery indicates convection organizing into an elongated, yet broken line of convection now extending from northwestern Georgia (near Rome/RMG) southwestward through central Alabama (near Montgomery/MGM) and on through New Orleans (MSY) this morning. Portions of this complex are forward propagating to the east-northeast, while others are stalling at times and resulting in increased rainfall rates (exceeding 1 inch/hr in spots across northwest Georgia and 2-2.5 inches/hr across southwestern Alabama and southeastern Mississippi). It is worth noting that this complex is outpacing most models/CAMs with its eastward progress by about 2-3 hours/roughly 100 miles in central Alabama. The storms continue to be efficient rainfall producers given the favorable pre-convective environment they're in (1.5 inch PW and 1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE - highest across southern Alabama). Given the stronger buoyancy with southern extent, rainfall rates have tended to be higher especially with southern Alabama/southeastern Mississippi portions of the complex. The complex will continue to pose a flash flood risk that should translate eastward with time. As storms move through central/southern Alabama and northern Georgia, they will traverse areas that have already experienced 1-3 inches of rainfall from yesterday's convective activity. Ground conditions are moist, and FFGs are generally at or below 1 inch/hr in the I-85/US-80 corridors through Montgomery/Auburn northeastward through the Atlanta Metro. Heavier rainfall materializing over these areas could contribute to several areas of flash flooding - locally significant. Additional areas of heightened concern continue across southwestern Alabama and vicinity with hourly (and sub-hourly) rain rates exceeding 2 inches promoting areas of excessive runoff/flash flooding. Storms should eventually reach the Florida Panhandle, central Georgia, and central South Carolina through 14Z or so with continued flash flood potential in those areas. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5EcW_rd_Dv9cych5LBWmZk4kyM1ycYUDU7cneuC7NiTEZ1L8xc5MluimnX9nsxfidYSw= qKnb5Y6qH9wP-1UONaY7BIc$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...FFC...GSP...HUN...JAN...LIX...MOB... TAE... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 35058267 35008167 34428143 33708160 32728267=20 31128402 30258602 30198775 29908871 29008915=20 28889022 29229084 30129010 31698845 33428689=20 34738514=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .