Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0029
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jan 04 2023 01:45:44

ACUS11 KWNS 040145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040145=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-040315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0029
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CST Tue Jan 03 2023

Areas affected...Central Gulf States

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 040145Z - 040315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in convection is expected as the
evening progresses, with it a risk of wind and perhaps a tornado or
two. A new watch may be warranted.

DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer air mass is expected to gradually
respond across the lower MS Valley due to an approaching short-wave
trough over Texas. Low-level flow should become a bit more
convergent which should encourage additional convective development
and perhaps more robust updrafts. Over the last hour or so, a fair
number of thunderstorms have matured from south-central LA into
east-central MS. Several supercells are observed along this corridor
and an upward tick in coverage/intensity may be noted as the evening
progresses. Overall, scattered strong/severe thunderstorms should
become more noteworthy prior to frontal passage. A new watch may be
warranted to account for this risk.

...Darrow/Thompson.. 01/04/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_pE1dW1cvuYO3DfEbHCxENSvOAgZV7wKADLcIYNio6imZveuw5Kka-ecXxEqKMuWLkFu68DFk=
apvQPfSV7AgVSjYRIE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   33368894 34458732 33108640 31688832 33368894=20


=3D =3D =3D
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