Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jan 04 2023 00:54:44

ACUS01 KWNS 040054
SWODY1
SPC AC 040053

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CST Tue Jan 03 2023

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA INCLUDING PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

....SUMMARY...
Tornadoes and damaging gusts remain possible across parts of the
Southeast, particularly from southern Mississippi into Alabama, far
southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. A strong tornado may
occur overnight.

....Southeastern states...
The influence of a leading wave which moved out of AL and into GA is
currently affecting low-level wind fields over AL, MS and LA this
evening, reducing SRH in some areas. However, the main upper trough
will move toward the MS Valley tonight, with increasing large-scale
ascent over the region. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s F to
lower 70s F will maintain an unstable air mass ahead of a cold
front, with a degree of air mass recovery possible over parts of AL
and perhaps southwest GA. Numerous storms are expected to develop
near the cold front tonight, with an attendant increase in storm
relative helicity with 850 mb winds possibly to 50 kt by 12Z
Wednesday over AL and western GA. Given the increasing wind shear
and favorable ascent, storms may become supercells, either lone or
within a broken line, with a threat of tornadoes. By Wednesday
morning, the severe threat may extend as far east as southwest GA,
and across parts of the FL Panhandle.

....Eastern IL into IN...
With the loss of heating, boundary-layer cooling will gradually
stabilize the air mass, while drier air also pushes eastward just
off the surface with veering 850 mb winds. As such, the threat for
small supercells will be confined to near the surface low track over
the next hour or two, with waning threat over time. Until then, an
isolated brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out this evening.

...Jewell.. 01/04/2023

$$

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