Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 03 2023 22:22:13

AWUS01 KWNH 032222
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-040420-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0014
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
521 PM EST Tue Jan 03 2023

Areas affected...Portions of Central/Eastern LA and
Central/Southern MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032220Z - 040420Z

SUMMARY...New areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop this evening across areas of central/eastern LA through
central/southern MS. Given some of the heavier rains earlier
today, the additional rounds of convection heading into the
overnight hours may result in more flash flooding concerns.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front making
gradual progress east through lower portions of the MS Valley as a
strong upper trough/closed low continues to pivot across the
Midwest.

This cold front along with additional energy/forcing aloft with be
encountering a moderate to strongly unstable airmass over portions
of the central Gulf Coast region where MLCAPE values of 1500 to
2500 J/kg are in place. The airmass remains quite moist with
persistent low-level southwest flow arriving in off the northern
Gulf of Mexico and helping to yield PW values of 1.5 to 1.75
inches which are still generally unchanged from earlier today and
about 2 standard deviations above the mean.

Areas of showers and thunderstorms should tend to redevelop as a
result over the next several hours as the cold front progresses
farther east. The environment through the vertical column remains
strongly sheared and this will help favor an elevated degree of
convective organization as the activity initiates and advances
downstream.

Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour will be possible, with some
additional storm total amounts locally in the 2 to 3 inch range
possible going through mid to late evening. The new rounds of
convection will encounter some areas that received heavy rainfall
earlier today, and with the locally wet antecedent conditions,
additional areas of flash flooding will be possible.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6YXFV8uhNhktcVjTjjv2drHFKkZNsBcVP69hGWjbb2JR9quGwBaujqLfxwRUjNrwApIB=
L2bNar1pH7y-Mu9faxbncBM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32958905 32658844 32038839 31158895 30219035=20
            30079172 30909226 32239109 32848994=20

=3D =3D =3D
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