Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0027
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 03 2023 20:55:12

ACUS11 KWNS 032055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032054=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-032300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0027
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 PM CST Tue Jan 03 2023

Areas affected...Southeast AL...northwestern FL Panhandle...and
southwest GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 032054Z - 032300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe risk is increasing across parts of southeast
AL, southwest GA, and parts of the western FL Panhandle. Supercells
capable of all hazards including tornadoes appear possible, and a
new Tornado Watch could be needed.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar data shows an uptick in cellular storms
spreading northward from the western FL Panhandle into southeast AL
this afternoon within in broad warm advective regime over the warm
sector. Cloud breaks have allowed for diurnal
heating/destabilization of upper 60s/lower 70s boundary-layer
dewpoints, supporting surface-based storms. VWP data shows a
favorable clockwise-turning low-level hodograph (200-250 m2/s2 0-1
km SRH) which will support discrete supercells capable of all
hazards including tornadoes. Therefore, a new tornado watch and an
extension of Tornado Watch 08 may be needed for parts of the area
this afternoon.

...Weinman/Hart.. 01/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5Nahl0Zt5oTro7Mfk_tJnPJIuX-lNPvw2alKuggn44RcGp5lJsDTZElKmPqoYc9Eb3GIfvFVl=
Tv4VJdNdn3Pj2pOAyw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   31308730 31668703 31938657 32238595 32488521 32528491
            32568434 32288411 31928428 31218508 30768609 30708672
            30718701 30958726 31308730=20


=3D =3D =3D
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