Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jan 03 2023 19:36:40 ACUS01 KWNS 031936 SWODY1 SPC AC 031935 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Tue Jan 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AL... ....SUMMARY... Tornadoes, damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible across the central Gulf States into the Tennessee Valley, with the greatest threat for strong tornadoes from southeast Mississippi into southern/central Alabama. ....20Z Update... ....Central Gulf Coast states and TN Valley... An organized line of thunderstorms continues to push eastward across central TN and northern AL. Vertical shear across this region remains strong, with recent mesoanalysis estimating 50 to 60 kt of effective bulk shear. More cellular activity exists farther south across central and southern AL. Numerous rotating storms have been noted over the past few hours across central AL, although the persistence of the rotation has been relatively short-lived in most cells. The best overlap of vertical shear and buoyancy is expected to remain over Central AL for the next few hours and additional severe thunderstorms are possible both with the cellular activity ahead of the line and with storm in the convective line itself. As a result, tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will remain possible. Additional storm development is anticipated later tonight, beginning in MS, along a cold front expected to push eastward through the region. Severe thunderstorms are possible with this activity as well, with a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts possible. ....IL/IN... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across southern/eastern IL and west-central IN this afternoon and into this evening. Isolated damaging gusts, hail, and perhaps even a brief tornado, remain possible with the strongest storms. ...Mosier.. 01/03/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Tue Jan 03 2023/ ....Central Gulf Coast states and TN Valley... A large and organized squall line extends from western MS into middle TN and central KY. This line will persist through the day and progress eastward across east TN and much of MS/AL. Occasional bow/supercell structures have been occurring for many hours along the line, and will continue to be a risk through the day. 12z soundings, recent VAD profiles, and forecast soundings show sufficient CAPE and relatively strong vertical shear profiles - providing a favorable environment for locally damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes with these storms. Out ahead of the line, numerous thunderstorms have been developing across parts of southeast LA and southern MS. Relatively strong low-level warm/moist advection and little cap are aiding this intensification. Low-level shear is quite strong, but will slowly weaken later today as the primary upper system lifts away. Nevertheless, the potential for several semi-discrete supercells will remain through the afternoon and early evening, posing a risk of tornadoes (some potentially strong) and locally damaging wind gusts. The strongest cells may also produce severe hail. Later tonight, another round of strong/severe storms may develop across MS as an upper trough approaches the region. It appears likely that the low-level mass fields will sufficiently recover ahead of this activity to pose another risk of a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. Storms will spread into AL before 12z. ....IL/IN... An intense 80+ knot mid-level jet max is currently tracking across western MO. As this feature tracks across the primary cold front this afternoon over eastern MO/western IL, most CAM solutions show widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings in this area show cold temperatures aloft and strong deep-layer shear. This suggests a risk of hail, gusty/damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two with the more intense cells. The activity is expected to spread into western IN after dark before weakening. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .