Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0023
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 03 2023 18:30:13

ACUS11 KWNS 031830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031829=20
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-032000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0023
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CST Tue Jan 03 2023

Areas affected...eastern Alabama into parts of west-central and
northwestern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 031829Z - 032000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Tornado risk ongoing at this time across central Alabama
is forecast to continue expanding eastward/northeastward.  New
Tornado Watch issuance will likely be required in the next hour or
so.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a cluster of small, rotating
updrafts shifting northeastward into/across central Alabama, within
eastern portions of Tornado Watch 7.  The storms are occurring in an
amply unstable environment where low-level dewpoints are generally
in the upper 60s.  While cloud cover continues to inhibit more
robust surface heating, CAPE values will continue to weakly increase
from southwest to northeast this afternoon.

Meanwhile kinematically, a favorably sheared environment persists,
with gradual veering/increasing of the flow with height yielding
both low-level and deep-layer shear supportive of updraft rotation
(as evidenced by the aforementioned cluster of supercells in central
AL).

As this environment translates eastward with time, expect associated
tornado potential to likewise spread east of the current bounds of
WW 007, which will require new WW issuance across eastern Alabama
and into portions of western Georgia.

...Goss/Hart.. 01/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4yEg6xp34_ln-NtMJjfvWZ5TChOg5iHKfvrvokpfXWZpnx8HlT5QaoBIxwWLE6UD7WJOPhUvW=
2dVZV4Xo-61zOSD914$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...

LAT...LON   34408601 35048491 34558388 32688416 31688631 31528728
            34408601=20


=3D =3D =3D
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