Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jan 03 2023 16:22:10 ACUS01 KWNS 031622 SWODY1 SPC AC 031620 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Tue Jan 03 2023 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ....SUMMARY... Tornadoes, damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible across the central Gulf States into the Tennessee Valley, with the greatest threat for strong tornadoes from southeast Louisiana into southern/central Alabama. ....Central Gulf Coast states and TN Valley... A large and organized squall line extends from western MS into middle TN and central KY. This line will persist through the day and progress eastward across east TN and much of MS/AL. Occasional bow/supercell structures have been occurring for many hours along the line, and will continue to be a risk through the day. 12z soundings, recent VAD profiles, and forecast soundings show sufficient CAPE and relatively strong vertical shear profiles - providing a favorable environment for locally damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes with these storms. Out ahead of the line, numerous thunderstorms have been developing across parts of southeast LA and southern MS. Relatively strong low-level warm/moist advection and little cap are aiding this intensification. Low-level shear is quite strong, but will slowly weaken later today as the primary upper system lifts away. Nevertheless, the potential for several semi-discrete supercells will remain through the afternoon and early evening, posing a risk of tornadoes (some potentially strong) and locally damaging wind gusts. The strongest cells may also produce severe hail. Later tonight, another round of strong/severe storms may develop across MS as an upper trough approaches the region. It appears likely that the low-level mass fields will sufficiently recover ahead of this activity to pose another risk of a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. Storms will spread into AL before 12z. ....IL/IN... An intense 80+ knot mid-level jet max is currently tracking across western MO. As this feature tracks across the primary cold front this afternoon over eastern MO/western IL, most CAM solutions show widely scattered thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings in this area show cold temperatures aloft and strong deep-layer shear. This suggests a risk of hail, gusty/damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two with the more intense cells. The activity is expected to spread into western IN after dark before weakening. ...Hart/Weinman.. 01/03/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .