Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 03 2023 07:51:00

AWUS01 KWNH 030750
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-031348-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0009
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 AM EST Tue Jan 03 2023

Areas affected...southern Kentucky and adjacent areas of Middle
Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030748Z - 031348Z

Summary...Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible as
bands of convection traverse the region this morning.

Discussion...A series of broken bands of convection and individual
cells have managed to migrate downstream from near the
Mississippi/Ohio River confluence to an axis from near Jackson, TN
to near Hopkinsville, KY and on to Frankfort/Lexington.  Several
of the storms have managed to outrun the axis of strongest
surface-based instability (especially in eastern Kentucky).=20
However, SPC mesoanalyses indicate areas of 250+ J/kg SBCAPE
nearly parallel to and just north of the Kentucky/Tennessee
border.  These instability values were maintaining scattered
convection that was not only oriented largely parallel to mean
flow aloft but also exhibiting localized training at times.  The
training was resulting in 1+ inch/hr rainfall rates that
approached FFG thresholds at times (1.5-2 inches/hr), prompting
occasional moderate MRMS Flash responses along the general axis of
convection.

Models (particularly CAMs) suggest that these ongoing convective
trends will continue this morning, with spots of 1-1.5 inch/hr
rainfall rates continuing especially where 1) training is most
pronounced and 2) surface-based instability is at its peak nearer
the KY/TN border area.  These rainfall rates will result in
localized issues with excessive runoff - especially where heavier
rates can materialize in sensitive and/or urbanized areas.  One or
two instances of flash flooding may result across the discussion
area through 14Z this morning.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9-rdpjAHBZYrBQGYu2n5MByFKbO_JYD7h42PbrWI2IjczDPENegHvlc2ydYloY9OjVbq=
P_modOExGw98Iw8W3nQLW28$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38318362 38138290 37568310 37098384 36688446=20
            36388522 35828646 35548737 35428846 35728967=20
            36388899 37158759 37648652 37848549 38248454=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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