Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0016
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 03 2023 06:00:35

ACUS11 KWNS 030600
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030559=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-030800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0016
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023

Areas affected...East TX into southeast OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 030559Z - 030800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible with
frontal storms into the early morning hours. Watch issuance is
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing along a weak cold
front from east TX into southeast OK, with recent development of a
strong storm noted in Lamar County, TX. While moderate instability
and favorable deep-layer shear remain conditionally favorable for
organized storms, the strongest large-scale ascent and low-level
flow/shear is expected to remain east of this region into the early
morning hours, which will tend to limit the coverage and intensity
of strong storms. However, the strongest storms from southeast OK
into northeast TX will be capable of producing isolated hail and
strong gusts into the early morning hours. With severe coverage
expected to remain isolated at best in this area, watch issuance is
considered unlikely.

...Dean/Thompson.. 01/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8rh0pEuwCh8EdIrMCb2WSB4VkUpeusKBVS2q8qTw-ymlMJe-IDAicSAQs4PYbxc4Ik739E8W1=
Kf6vuHukjbKchYuitE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   32819598 35059516 35229464 35109453 33949458 32729483
            32279508 31379581 30999664 30999680 31189690 31989635
            32349608 32819598=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.