Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0015
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 03 2023 05:17:37

ACUS11 KWNS 030517
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030517=20
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-030715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0015
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023

Areas affected...Extreme northeast TX...Northern
LA...Southern/eastern AR...Northwest MS...Western TN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 3...4...5...

Valid 030517Z - 030715Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3, 4, 5 continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes
will continue overnight.

DISCUSSION...An extensive plume of convection is ongoing late this
evening from northern LA into parts of central/eastern AR, with
periodic low/midlevel rotation noted with embedded organized
clusters and bowing segments. Strong low-level and deep-layer shear
within the warm sector of a deepening cyclone over the central
Plains will continue to support organized convection overnight
across the region. Widespread precipitation will continue to limit
buoyancy across much of the area, with the greatest relative threat
expected with organized storm structures along the southern/eastern
periphery of ongoing convection, where somewhat warmer surface
temperatures (near 70 F) and greater instability (MLCAPE near 1000
J/kg per objective mesoanalyses) are in place. Bowing segments and
embedded supercells will remain possible overnight, with a primary
threat of locally damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes.

...Dean.. 01/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4826doyxf9XQTxj8mLmzUr0ydLMDTZeGc4RX0ughBINCCWGFCQAb-EOfq9bBjmmHjKX2IaK9w=
S-ARqX4Jf8-pdZJTIw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   32059460 33649327 34529203 35449072 35988952 35478928
            34658960 33459052 32349146 31549256 31399312 31089419
            31599449 32059460=20


=3D =3D =3D
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