Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0014
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 03 2023 02:32:35

ACUS11 KWNS 030232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030231=20
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-030400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0014
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0831 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023

Areas affected...Northern LA...Southeast AR...Northwest MS...Extreme
southwest TN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...3...

Valid 030231Z - 030400Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1, 3 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and a a couple of tornadoes
will continue into the late evening, and potentially spread east of
WW 3. A new watch may be issued to replace part of WW 1 prior to
03Z.

DISCUSSION...At 0230Z, a long-lived embedded supercell is moving
northeastward across southeast AR toward the MS river and northwest
MS, while a pair of small bowing segments are moving across
northeast LA. The KNQA VWP continues to indicate a favorable wind
profile for organized convection, with strong low-level shear/SRH.
The thermodynamic environment is being adversely affected by
widespread convection and precipitation, but seasonably rich
low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, sufficient
for maintenance of ongoing convection and a continued threat of
locally damaging wind and a tornado or two.=20

Farther west, organized convection has redeveloped from far east TX
into northwest LA, with strong low-level and deep-layer shear still
noted in the KSHV VWP. One or more bowing segments and/or embedded
supercells may evolve out of this developing storm cluster, which
would pose a threat of locally damaging wind and a couple of
tornadoes into the late evening and potentially the overnight hours.

With some severe threat expected to continue into late tonight,
portions of WW 1 will likely be replaced with a new watch prior to
the 03Z expiration time. Also, new watch issuance is possible to the
east of WW 3, if short-term trends support a severe threat into
northwest MS with ongoing convection.

...Dean/Thompson.. 01/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9vm8Bi9ZI0VoPbr7621EmPR95BVKz47gQcjtQ_W7MYCf8gAqJqLY7lYUhyCQhjPftAVqCD8Ka=
ig0ghG4ISPJpIbJn2o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   31579138 31749257 32549353 34079173 35479016 35338928
            31579138=20


=3D =3D =3D
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