Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 03 2023 01:30:58

AWUS01 KWNH 030130
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-030729-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0006
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
829 PM EST Mon Jan 02 2023

Areas affected...northeastern Arkansas, southeastern Missouri, far
southern Illinois, far southwestern Indiana, western Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 030129Z - 030729Z

Summary...Deep, training convection continues to pose a flash
flood risk initially over northeastern Arkansas and southeastern
Missouri.  This activity will spread eastward along the Lower Ohio
River Valley through 06Z.

Discussion...Well-organized, deep convection continues along an
axis from just southwest of Paducah, KY to Jonesboro, AR.  The
Arkansas portion of this complex has recently begun to
forward-propagate and take on a more easterly component of motion,
although it still continues to produce 1.2 inch/hr rainfall rates
that are exceeding local FFG.  Additionally, more scattered
convection east of the organizing complex was levering weak to
moderate, elevated buoyancy and strong convergence along a
well-defined 850mb warm front extending eastward from the complex
through southwestern Kentucky.  Anomalously high moisture content
(1.5 inch PW values) along the front was fostering the ongoing,
efficient rainfall rates.  Meanwhile, the orientation of the
complex relative to the aforementioned front was enabling
localized training/repeating of convection.  Localized reports of
flash flooding have been reported in northeastern Arkansas near
Walnut Ridge recently.

Models/observations suggest that the ongoing flash flood scenario
should translate eastward with time along the 850mb warm front,
which should only gradually lift northward toward the Ohio River
over the next 4-6 hours.  The strong southerly low-level flow
south of the front will help maintain the moist/unstable airmass
for efficient precipitation, while low-level convergence and
ongoing convection will continue to support training/repeating and
occasional 1-2 inch/hr rainfall rates.  Areas of flash flooding
are expected to occur as a result.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6XH1ICZUK4mejF8LtSECAHynQjn6LGE7vQFw-2h6PcHOLzi3YjpkD3geJQnwrPYFGMlx=
ATUxKWsmwmKohrYZ7Rz6Cj0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...OHX...
PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38908637 38808514 38188525 37058570 36278626=20
            35659011 35649089 36599062 37369016 38358843=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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