Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0013
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 03 2023 01:10:04

ACUS11 KWNS 030109
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030109=20
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-030245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0013
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0709 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023

Areas affected...Extreme northeast AR...Southeast MO...Far southern
IL...Far western KY...Northwest TN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 030109Z - 030245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in the severe threat is possible with time
this evening, with a threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps a
brief tornado or two. The need for watch issuance is uncertain at
this time.

DISCUSSION...Widespread convection is ongoing this evening from
northeast AR/northwest TN into western KY. While widespread rainfall
is limiting destabilization (MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less),
favorable wind profiles (as noted on the KLZK and KNQA VWPs) are
supporting the potential for organized convection, and some
low/midlevel rotation has been noted with the stronger embedded
convective elements from extreme northeast AR into the MO Bootheel.=20

With a southerly low-level jet expected to intensify through the
evening, some threat for locally damaging gusts and/or a brief
tornado or two may evolve with any stronger bowing segments or
embedded supercells. However, limited instability and a tendency for
destructive storm interference may tend to limit the magnitude of
the severe threat, making the need for short-term watch issuance
uncertain. Additional rounds of potentially organized convection may
impact the same area late tonight, as upstream storms eventually
move into the region in advance of a cold front.

...Dean/Thompson.. 01/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-186sKuHGb702FlkpCI849wNGZrtI5PbelBjKjmFzFUE9h2HO-ae75KeCQXD2Fsq7G1JrAr5S=
s5vNe9eKPiXVFuwqT0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36038929 36018995 36059062 36859011 37328946 37358839
            37318790 37068788 36488823 36458848 36258879 36038929=20


=3D =3D =3D
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