Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jan 03 2023 00:48:34 ACUS01 KWNS 030048 SWODY1 SPC AC 030046 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS/OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND THE MID-SOUTH... ....SUMMARY... All severe thunderstorm hazards remain possible tonight over eastern Oklahoma and the Arklatex region into southeastern Kansas, the Ozarks, and parts of the Mid-South. Tornadoes (some strong) and damaging gusts will be the greatest threats, but some large hail may also occur. ....01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a strong, negatively-tilted short-wave trough over the central High Plains, ejecting northeast in line with latest model guidance. Associated surface low is expected to progress across northwest OK into eastern KS later this evening, which will allow a pronounced warm front to advance north across the mid MS Valley. Numerous showers/thunderstorms, some severe, extend from southeast TX across northern LA into the Ozarks, including much of eastern OK/southeast KS. This activity is coincident with a strong LLJ that should increase in intensity overnight as it translates toward the lower OH Valley, in response to the central Plains short wave. 00z soundings across this region display strong shear but the most buoyant profiles are sampled across the Plains along the western edge of the expansive convective shield. OUN/FWD both exhibit steep mid-level lapse rates with modest surface-based buoyancy. Several long-lived supercells have been noted this evening, especially across northern LA where at least one tornado has been observed. Strongest mid-level height falls are expected to spread across the central Plains into the mid MS Valley and this should encourage long-lived updrafts at higher latitudes where the warm sector has recovered (southeast KS/northeast OK). Overall, earlier thoughts regarding the evolution of severe continue. The only major changes to this outlook are to reduce severe probabilities where winds have veered along the I-35 corridor and to nudge higher severe probabilities into west-central MS. ...Darrow.. 01/03/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .