Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0012
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 03 2023 00:01:31

ACUS11 KWNS 030001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030001=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-030130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0012
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023

Areas affected...East TX into central/northern LA and southern AR

Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...

Valid 030001Z - 030130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat will continue through the evening. Some
threat may spread east of WW 1, and downstream watch issuance is
possible.

DISCUSSION...Widespread convection is ongoing from central/northern
LA into AR early this evening, within a modestly unstable (MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg) and favorably sheared environment. Thus far,
discrete supercells have largely struggled to maintain themselves
due to storm interference, though an earlier embedded supercell
produced an apparent tornado near/northeast of Jonesboro, LA within
the last hour. An already strong low-level jet is forecast to
increase through the evening, especially from northern LA into AR,
which will maintain tornado-favorable wind profiles across the
region.=20

In the short term, the greatest risk of embedded supercells may be
along the southern/eastern periphery of the ongoing convective
cluster across northern LA, where somewhat more favorable low-level
lapse rates are being maintained, compared to areas embedded in
heavy precipitation. This risk will gradually spread east of WW 1,
and downstream watch issuance is possible this evening as storms
spread into far northeast LA/southeast AR.=20

Farther west, convection is gradually increasing in coverage again
from east TX into southwest AR. While some of this area saw
widespread convection earlier today, persistent low-level moist
advection may support some modest recovery across this region this
evening, with wind profiles remaining favorable for supercells
and/or organized line segments and an attendant threat of damaging
wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes.

...Dean/Thompson.. 01/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7ttfeahq_WPIGIXhEZktwH2bVD8skq9PDHVVy6tOs_zvSAhy-gq4m3rzup0-7WKNhCBYCHjYt=
fwYmgY-7Gw-SDjzgX4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   30979316 31059403 31429484 31919519 32449539 33209524
            34419419 35119330 35109245 34779179 34429151 33859140
            33509147 32699174 31669243 30979316=20


=3D =3D =3D
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