Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0011
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 02 2023 23:59:33

ACUS11 KWNS 022359
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022359=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-030600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0011
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0559 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023

Areas affected...portions of western Nebraska...far northern
Colorado and southern South Dakota.

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 022359Z - 030600Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow should gradually develop this evening with
rates greater than 1 inch per hour likely.

DISCUSSION...As of 2340 UTC, regional observations showed a large
negatively tilted upper trough and associated surface cyclone
deepening across the central Rockies. To the east of the trough and
low a broad area of stratiform precipitation was ongoing across
portions of the high Plains. Over the last couple of hours, light
upslope precipitation has increased in coverage and transitioned
from freezing drizzle to snow. Likely a response to cooling of the
column and deepening dynamic lift from the ejecting trough, as
forcing continues to intensify and spread eastward, widespread heavy
snow is expected to develop across the northeastern corner of CO
into the NE panhandle and eventually southern SD. Area RAP soundings
show a deep and saturated dendritic growth layer favorable for heavy
snow rates greater than 1 in/hr. Some banding and weak convective
elements may also support heavier snow rates into this evening.
Hi-res guidance suggests the heaviest snow should develop after 01z
across far northeast CO before shifting toward western/central NE
later this evening.

...Lyons.. 01/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!59TPkSoZmR4RUbLucPAOZNIDTjKtIWbQtUb1l7SO7AAKaZ6wdfAvXClhyOfHmEaB2RWQTp__U=
2FPlZg8wl4FmtlQn30$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   40860372 40100344 40090292 40690197 41110127 41650018
            41939969 42289922 42789914 43079953 43310012 43360124
            43240215 42770290 41910351 41320374 40860372=20


=3D =3D =3D
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