Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 02 2023 21:34:49

AWUS01 KWNH 022134
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-030200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0004
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
434 PM EST Mon Jan 02 2023

Areas affected...eastern TX into western LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 022132Z - 030200Z

SUMMARY...Training convection will pose a short term threat for
flash flooding from areas of eastern TX into western LA. Training
convection with peak rain rates of 2-3 in/hr are expected, falling
within a region that received 3-6 inches of rain late last week.

DISCUSSION...21Z local radar imagery from KSHV and KPOE showed an
axis of training convection across the central Sabine River Valley
with a local Wunderground.com observation reporting 1.65 inches of
rain in 30 minutes near Bronson, TX ending at 2104Z. MRMS data
supported 1+ in/hr rainfall rates nearby within the broader region
of thunderstorms. The environment was highly supportive of heavy
rain with precipitable water values of 1.6 to 1.8 inches and
MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg (SPC mesoanlysis from 21Z).
Unidirectional flow from the SSW is supporting training given a
similarly aligned convective orientation.

Short term data from the RAP suggests an increase in low level
moisture transport combined with increasing upper level
divergence/diffluence across the Sabine River Valley (ahead of a
jet streak near 250 mb over the lower Rio Grande Valley) will
allow a continuation of convection across areas of eastern TX and
western LA over at least the next 1-2 hours with additional
upstream development possible between 23Z and 01Z. Given areas of
eastern TX into western LA picked up 3 to 6 inches of rain back on
December 29/30, the potential for runoff is increased due to
elevated soil moisture values. Additional rainfall of 2-4 inches
will be possible prior to 02Z across eastern TX into northwestern
LA and possibly southern AR.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-FCLZkybCklG4O3yug10DPVqo93fweml-5_mJGOl4ozvw4mbZP5V5qrgCOSAbvknD8Xc=
4xT6sv-PGvbDqRXRiLF2IyM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34049216 33589161 32489232 31109324 30489429=20
            30489485 30899495 31349483 32209427 33309305=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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