Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0007
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 02 2023 21:20:34

ACUS11 KWNS 022120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022119=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-022245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0007
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023

Areas affected...North-central Arkansas into far south-central
Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...

Valid 022119Z - 022245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues.

SUMMARY...The supercell tornado risk continues across portions of
Tornado Watch 01 in north-central AR, and a local spatial extension
of the watch could be warranted to the AR/MO border.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar data shows scattered to numerous
thunderstorms spreading northward across parts of northern AR this
afternoon, with periodic strong/rotating updrafts embedded within
these storms. The 18Z LZK sounding showed modest midlevel lapse
rates atop upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints (yielding moderate
instability). While minimal convective inhibition and modest ascent
in the vicinity of an east-west-oriented warm front are favoring
convective clustering/upscale growth, a large/expanding
clockwise-turning low-level hodograph (around 200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH)
per LZK VWP data is supporting embedded supercell structures given
the surface-based instability -- favoring a continued
tornado/damaging-wind risk.

This activity will generally spread/expand northward toward the
MO/AR border, where lower 60s boundary-layer dewpoints are evident.
RAP/NAM forecast soundings suggest that this low-level moisture will
be sufficient for surface-based storms possibly into far
south-central MO this afternoon. Therefore, a local spatial
extension of Tornado Watch 01 may be warranted to the AR/MO border.
Farther north into southern MO, upper 50s dewpoints north of the
effective warm front cast uncertainty on organized surface-based
storms, though trends will be monitored.

...Weinman.. 01/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5QCYg9EUFt9bJXr-saDzNL5UIHll0alwB3lKNk7aWOaYzxqmGPvCsYEg852o713GSAxwKRqPh=
8czuEQovCCZiH240Qw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36069175 35219189 34679252 34639311 34859371 35289389
            35929368 36389343 36639316 36679270 36629222 36499187
            36069175=20


=3D =3D =3D
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