Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0006
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 02 2023 20:40:47

ACUS11 KWNS 022040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022039=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-022215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0006
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023

Areas affected...Parts of northeast TX...northwest LA...and far
southwest AR

Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...

Valid 022039Z - 022215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues.

SUMMARY...An increasingly favorable corridor for tornadoes is
developing across portions of Tornado Watch 01 over parts of the
Arklatex this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KPOE/KSHV shows a large cluster
of showers and thunderstorms with organized embedded
updrafts/mesocyclones tracking northward from southeast
TX/west-central LA this afternoon. Ahead of this activity, a
moist/unstable airmass characterized by upper 60s/lower 70s
boundary-layer dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled
by 18Z SHV sounding) are in place. Minimal convective inhibition
coupled with the favorable surface-based instability across this
portion of the warm sector should support the northward spread of
these showers and thunderstorms during the next couple hours. And,
favorable/increasing low-level hodograph curvature (150-200 m2/s2
0-1 km SRH) per SHV VWP data should support a few discrete or
semi-discrete supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some
possibly strong but mostly brief) and damaging gusts.

...Weinman.. 01/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8yIMbUQNyFud4ajRHurBfZrZzATXFD6nik0Qbt1bd3B3MaS6uGk_mbpRv3PCiyXr6FPVaytVg=
tZVEQyzwg0_sP3fbk0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...

LAT...LON   31559431 32169453 32799465 33049449 33249418 33219358
            33049329 32759323 32029331 31379353 31299403 31559431=20


=3D =3D =3D
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