Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0004
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 02 2023 19:29:02

ACUS11 KWNS 021928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021928=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-030000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0004
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023

Areas affected...Parts of Nebraska and far northwest Iowa

Concerning...Freezing rain=20

Valid 021928Z - 030000Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain with rates up to 0.06 inch/3 hours is
possible this afternoon/early evening across parts of NE into far
northwest IA -- especially northeast NE in the 21-00Z time frame.

DISCUSSION...The nose of a strong south-southwesterly midlevel speed
max will gradually overspread western OK and southwest KS this
afternoon, with related strong DCVA emerging over parts of NE in the
21-00Z time frame. This midlevel ascent, coupled with strengthening
low/midlevel isentropic ascent, will support an increase in
precipitation focused along a southwest-northeast-oriented
low/midlevel baroclinic zone across parts of south-central NE
northeastward into far northwest IA.=20

Current surface temperatures through this corridor are in the 32-34
F range, and light precipitation and related wet-bulb cooling this
afternoon will support surface temperatures in the 30-32 F range
before precipitation rates increase over the area. These
sufficiently cold surface temperatures beneath a substantial warm
nose at 850-mb should favor freezing rain with rates up to 0.06 inch
per 3 hours given the strengthening/focused ascent. Confidence in
these rates is greatest in northeast NE and perhaps into far
northwest IA between 21-00Z. North of the expected freezing-rain
corridor, colder thermodynamic profiles should favor mixed winter
precipitation including areas of heavy snow. Of note, upslope flow
and favorable freezing-rain thermodynamic profiles over southeast WY
into the NE Panhandle are yielding freezing drizzle, and these
conditions could persist into the evening hours as well.

...Weinman.. 01/02/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!73bfPKhuzhl72kJ1vFnNFGahTF6zuG1Nv3TQAKtsnl3zxU6evXlocsDpm95BGsaDNYbh7HKad=
gFioe7U8qioVJlCUUM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   40160026 40060132 40460157 40900088 41350009 42169894
            42639814 42809719 42769614 42289597 41499708 41129784
            40479941 40160026=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.