Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jan 02 2023 17:32:33 ACUS02 KWNS 021732 SWODY2 SPC AC 021730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Mon Jan 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur Tuesday across parts of the central Gulf Coast states into the Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes, scattered damaging winds, and large hail will all be possible. The greatest severe-thunderstorm risk is expected from southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi and southern/central Alabama, where strong gusts and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible. ....Central Gulf Coast States into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys... A closed upper low over the central Plains and associated mid-level shortwave trough will shift eastward towards the mid/upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday. This system will be contained within a larger-scale upper trough slowly developing eastward across the southern Rockies/southern Plains. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will persist from TX into the OH Valley. A broken line of convection will be ongoing along or ahead of a cold front from the lower OH Valley into northern MS and continuing southwest into southeast TX. Stronger and more progressive larger-scale ascent will be focused over northern portions of the area during the morning. Upper 50s to low 60s F boundary-layer dewpoints will contribute to weak instability amid strong shear. As a result, some of this activity may be strong to severe (mainly wind) from portions of KY/TN into the northern MS vicinity. Further south into northern LA and southeast TX, more cellular convection is possible during the first few hours of the period. Ahead of the large-scale upper trough, a lead shortwave impulse, within a sub-tropical upper-level jet streak oriented from the western Gulf of Mexico into the central Gulf Coast states, should serve as a focus for severe thunderstorm development by late Tuesday morning or early afternoon across southeastern LA into parts of southern MS/AL. Height falls across the area will remain modest through the day. However, strong vertical shear will overlap mid/upper 60s F to perhaps lower 70s surface dewpoints. Various forecast soundings from the NAM/RAP show wind profiles favorable for supercells amid 1000-1500+ J/kg MLCAPE. Most CAMs indicate multiple supercells will develop ahead of the decaying line of convection associated with the eastward-percolating cold front, and in the vicinity of a marine warm front. These discrete supercells may produce a few tornadoes, with some possibly strong given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Additional convection is expected along the surface cold front, which will creep east/southeast through the period, becoming oriented from central KY/middle TN to far southeastern LA by early Wednesday morning. Severe potential with this overnight activity remains somewhat uncertain, and depends on how convection evolves during the day. Still, it appears possible that some areas across the central Gulf Coast states may see more than one round of severe thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night. ...Gleason.. 01/02/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .