Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 02 2023 08:34:36

FOUS30 KWBC 020834
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 AM EST Mon Jan 02 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 02 2023 - 12Z Tue Jan 03 2023

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM EASTERN TEXAS
TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

....Eastern Texas and Oklahoma to the lower Ohio Valley...
A deep closed low/upper trough will continue to move eastward from
the Southwest-Four Corners Region into the Rockies/High Plains
today.  Deep southerly flow ahead of the advancing system will
transport a plume of copious moisture from the western Gulf of
Mexico across the region.  Guidance continues to show PWs in
excess of 1.5 inches along the axis of strongest inflow.  This
moisture along with increasing instability is expected to interact
with an area of strong ascent afforded in part by favorable upper
jet forcing.   This will support widespread thunderstorm
development during the afternoon ahead of an advancing cold front.
 Instense rainfall rates are likely to develop, with cell mergers
and training convection likely to support heavy amounts within the
outlook area.  Neighborhood probabilities from the 00Z HREF
suggest the potential for widespread amounts of 2-3 inches within
the Slight Risk area.  Overall, the new Day 1 outlook area
remained similar to the previous Day 2, with a small northeastward
adjustment into the lower Ohio Valley that reflects the 00Z model
trends.

Pereira










Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4lc5T_v9oG7GQdX1_agMXEprCu66xTk2ie5CoXkoWHve=
QpZZAcG_tujHHx5GRXWKGfEaY60sQhEZrZ7MktDG3yRM1C0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4lc5T_v9oG7GQdX1_agMXEprCu66xTk2ie5CoXkoWHve=
QpZZAcG_tujHHx5GRXWKGfEaY60sQhEZrZ7MktDGn87KW0Y$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4lc5T_v9oG7GQdX1_agMXEprCu66xTk2ie5CoXkoWHve=
QpZZAcG_tujHHx5GRXWKGfEaY60sQhEZrZ7MktDGplQLzbE$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.