Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jan 02 2023 06:45:29 ACUS02 KWNS 020645 SWODY2 SPC AC 020643 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CST Mon Jan 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-South to the central Gulf Coast on Tuesday. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible. The greatest severe-thunderstorm risk is expected from southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi and southern/central Alabama, where strong gusts and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible. ....Mid-South to the Central Gulf Coast... A closed upper low over the central Plains and the attendant mid/upper shortwave trough will shift east toward the mid/upper MS Valley/Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday. This system will be contained within a larger-scale upper trough slowly shifting east across the southern Rockies/southern Plains. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will persist from TX into the OH Valley. Morning convection is expected to be ongoing ahead of a cold front from the Lower OH Valley into northern MS and continuing southwest into southeast TX. Stronger and more progressive larger-scale ascent will be focused over northern portions of the area during the morning. Upper 50s to low 60s F boundary-layer dewpoints will contribute to weak instability amid strong shear. As a result, some of this activity may be strong to severe (mainly wind) from portions of KY/TN into the northern MS vicinity. Further south into northern LA and southeast TX, more cellular convection is possible during the first few hours of the period, but large-scale ascent will be rather weak across this area, and a minimum in storm intensity may persist through morning. Ahead of the large-scale upper trough, a lead shortwave impulse, within a sub-tropical jet streak oriented from the western Gulf of Mexico into the central Gulf Coast states, may be a focus for severe thunderstorm develop by afternoon across southeast LA into parts of MS/AL. Height falls across the area will remain modest until overnight. However, strong vertical shear will overlap mid/upper 60s F boundary-layer dewpoints (perhaps near 70 F south of I-20). Forecast soundings show wind profiles favorable for supercells amid 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Most CAMs indicate supercell development ahead of the main line of convection associated with the eastward-percolating cold front, and in the vicinity of a marine warm front. While some uncertainty still exists in timing and coverage, discrete supercells may produce a few tornadoes (some possibly strong). Additional convection is expected along the surface cold front, which will creep east/southeast through the period, becoming oriented from central KY/Middle TN to far southeast LA by Wednesday morning. Severe potential with overnight activity remains uncertain and depends on how convection evolves during the day, and how much airmass recovery can occur. Nevertheless, it appears possible some areas may see more than one round of severe storms on Tuesday. ...Leitman.. 01/02/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .