Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jan 02 2023 05:47:56 ACUS01 KWNS 020547 SWODY1 SPC AC 020546 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CST Sun Jan 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ARKLATEX VICINITY INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected Monday and Monday night from eastern Oklahoma and Texas into Louisiana/Arkansas and vicinity. Tornadoes and scattered damaging winds will be the main hazards with these storms. Some of the tornadoes could be strong. ....South-central States... A strong upper-level trough within the Four Corners will eject into the southern High Plains and rapidly become negatively tilted as it pivots into the central Plains through Tuesday morning. A surface low initially within the Colorado Plateau will redevelop to the east/northeast into the mid-Mississippi Valley region. Strong moisture advection is expected to occur overnight Sunday into Monday ahead of the surface low. Current surface observations show mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are already as far north as northern Louisiana. Storms could develop this afternoon within the warm advection regime as well as along the advancing cold front. A somewhat complicated convective scenario is expected to unfold. A capping inversion evident on this evenings observed soundings should limit convection early in the day. The largest source of uncertainty is the potential for storms to form within a warm advection zone from the ArkLaTex into parts of the southern Ozarks. These early storms would still be capable of all severe hazards, but scattered to numerous storms could end up interfering with one another and impacting the environment for storms that would be expected later in the afternoon. Higher confidence exists in storms developing along the Pacific front and near the surface low from eastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. Observed soundings upstream of these locations sampled lapse rates of 7.5-8 C/km. Strong shear profiles with long, straight hodographs will favor potential for large hail early in the convective cycle. Given the forcing, it is unclear how long storms will remain discrete, but isolated very large hail would be possible with sustained supercells. With the low-level jet increasing during the day, potential for tornadoes will exist with initial supercells and with circulations embedded within linear structures that will become more prevalent by evening into the overnight. Low-level shear will be strong enough to support some strong tornadoes. At present, the area of greatest concern for tornadoes appears to be from the ArkLaTex vicinity into central Arkansas. Should discrete storms form, they would move into an environment where low-level shear would be increasing with time. As alluded to, however, the potential for early warm advection storms to further limit boundary-layer destabilization keeps confidence too low for an increase in tornado probabilities in this region. As convection moves north and east with time, storms should grow upscale into one or more lines. 50-60 kt winds in the low levels will support potential for scattered damaging gusts, particularly in the Mid-South region. Guidance does show linear structures as far north as the lower Ohio River Valley, but cooler temperatures and more limited moisture will limit the severe threat with northward extent. ...Wendt/Darrow.. 01/02/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .