Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 01 2023 19:53:51

ACUS01 KWNS 011953
SWODY1
SPC AC 011952

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Sun Jan 01 2023

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe wind gusts remain possible this afternoon
over parts of southern/central Arizona.

....20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across parts of
southern/central AZ.

...Gleason.. 01/01/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Sun Jan 01 2023/

....Central/Southern Arizona...
A deep, highly amplified large-scale trough (characterized by 500-mb
temperatures near -26C) will track eastward from south-central CA
across AZ through the period. Preceding the midlevel trough, strong
deep-layer southwesterly flow and substantial midlevel height falls
will overspread AZ this afternoon, while a Pacific cold front sweeps
eastward from the Lower CO River Valley across AZ.

Widespread cloud coverage and a band of stratiform rain (with
embedded convective elements) are ongoing across south-central AZ
ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front, which will generally
limit pre-frontal diurnal heating/destabilization this afternoon.
Nevertheless, as the very cold midlevel temperatures/steep midlevel
lapse rates and strong DCVA (accompanying the large-scale trough)
overspread lower/middle 50s boundary-layer dewpoints, marginal
instability (200-500 J/kg MLCAPE) will support a line of strongly
forced, surface-based convection along/immediately ahead of the cold
front. While the limited instability could limit updraft intensity,
30-40 kt of effective shear oriented oblique to the cold front
should favor a loosely organized line of storms capable of locally
damaging gusts across south/central AZ this afternoon -- especially
given the strong background deep-layer wind field and large-scale
ascent.

$$

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