Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 01 2023 08:26:21

ACUS03 KWNS 010826
SWODY3
SPC AC 010825

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Sun Jan 01 2023

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Mid-South to the central
Gulf Coast on Tuesday. Damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be
possible.

....Mid-South to Central Gulf Coast...

A broad upper trough is expected to persist across the central U.S.
on Tuesday. Within this larger-scale system, a compact mid/upper
closed low/shortwave trough over the MO Valley will lift northeast
toward the Great Lakes, while another shortwave impulse ejects
eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. This will
maintain strong deep-layer southwesterly flow over the central U.S.

Meanwhile, strong southerly low-level flow will bring Gulf moisture
northward into the Mid-South/Ohio Valley. Richer boundary-layer
moisture will reside across the central Gulf Coast states, but
near-60 F dewpoints could creep as far north as southern KY. This
should result in a modestly unstable warm sector, with greater
instability focused across the MS/AL vicinity. Strong vertical shear
overlapping a moist boundary layer will support organized convection
ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes appear possible Tuesday into Tuesday evening.

...Leitman.. 01/01/2023

$$

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